Outlook for Houston Real Estate Market remains positive

Houston Industrial | Q1 2019 | Quarterly Market Report - SOURCE: NAI Partners

Metro Houston created 72,600 jobs, a 2.4% increase, in the 12 months ending February 2019, compared to 56,400 jobs created in the 12 months ending February 2018, a 1.9% increase, according to the Texas Workforce Commission. The three sectors adding the most jobs over the past 12 months were durable goods manufacturing (15,200); professional, scientific and technical services (12,800); and health care (10,300). In energy, exploration and production lost 300 jobs while oil field services added 3,600. Energy prices recovered over the first quarter from year-end 2018. 2019 began with West Texas Intermediate trading at $46.31 a barrel, trending up through Q1 2019, and closing on the last day of March at $60.19 per barrel, a 30.0% increase.  While oil prices recovered, Baker Hughes reports that the U.S. rig count peaked at 1,083 the last week of December and trended down in the first quarter of 2019. The rig count typically responds to fluctuations in monthly oil prices with a three-month delay. At the end of the first week in April, the rig count was at 1,025. Softness in the rig count suggests less work for oil field service firms now and slower U.S. production growth in the future. The unemployment rate in Houston was 4.1% in February, compared to the rates in both Texas and the United States at 3.8%.

Record-breaking development pipeline
Houston’s overall industrial vacancy rate ended Q1 2019 at 5.9%, up 30 basis points quarter-over-quarter, and an increase of 80 basis points year-over-year. Net absorption was 1.4 million sq. ft. for the first quarter of 2019, down 44.2% over the prior year’s 3.1 million sq. ft. New construction delivered during the first quarter stood at 3.4 million sq. ft.—up from the fourth quarter’s 2.7 million sq. ft. There is currently a record-breaking 16 million sq. ft. under construction, with the lion’s share in the Southeast (5.8 million sq. ft.) and North (5.4 million sq. ft.). Triple net average monthly asking rents remained at $0.60 per sq. ft. quarter-over-quarter, and up 7.1% from $0.56 year-over-year.

​